CHAPTER08-QUIZ

Directions:
Select the BEST response alternative for each of the questions below.

	1.	Why can a psychic say that two people out of 75 share the same birthday and have a 99 percent success rate?
		A)	She has two friends in her audience that write down the same birthday.
		B)	She is psychic and can know everyone's birthday.
		C)	She rigs the tally results.
		D)	There really is a 99 percent chance that any two people will share a birthday in a group of 75 people.
	2.	Which is not considered to be a type of coincidence?
		A)	Synchronicty.
		B)	Clumpiness.
		C)	Fate.
		D)	Law of very large numbers.
	3.	Which is most likely?
		A)	Death by lightning.
		B)	Death by train.
		C)	Death by motorcycle.
		D)	Death by bath tub.
	4.	What is true in regression to the mean?
		A)	Bad luck can keep happening.
		B)	Good luck can keep happening.
		C)	Eventually a run of good or bad luck has to end.
	5.	What is it called when you apply numerous (often unplanned) analyses to your data until one analysis yields a significant result?
		A)	Standard analysis.
		B)	Data Mining.
		C)	Arbitrary Stop Point.
		D)	Statistical surfing.
	6.	What is it called when people who believe in paranormal abilities are especially prone to make mistakes in probability judgments?
		A)	Poor Judgment.
		B)	Gambling.
		C)	Coin-Flip Judgment.
		D)	Psychic Bias.
	7.	Which of the following is NOT an example that illustrates Littlewood's Law of Miracles?
		A)	Win a California Lotto if you buy 30 tickets.
		B)	Get struck and killed by lightening.
		C)	Get chickenpox.
		D)	Get killed by bees.
	8.	What is the probability that 2 people out of 23 random people in a room will share the same birthday (day and month)?
		A)	20 percent.
		B)	50 percent.
		C)	40 percent.
		D)	99 percent.
	9.	What is defined as the probability you would get an observed set of results by chance alone?
		A)	A p-value.
		B)	A null hypothesis.
		C)	A Z-score.
		D)	A correlation coefficient.
	10.	What is illusory optimism?
		A)	When one notices, remembers, and overestimates the probability of evidence that stands out.
		B)	The tendency to perceive yourself as more likely than your peers to have something good happen to you and less likely than your peers to have something bad to happen to you.
		C)	Another name for the birthday paradox.
		D)	Remarkably meaningful coincidences that are most noticeable when something good happens to others than when something bad happens to others.
	11.	What is the term that means if you have an extreme run of bad or good luck, chance alone says this will not continue?
		A)	Regression to the mean.
		B)	Arbitrary stop point.
		C)	Gambler's fallacy.
		D)	Clumpiness of Randomness.
	12.	The ________ error is when one notices, remembers, and overestimates the probability of evidence that stands out.
		A)	availability
		B)	usefulness
		C)	fundamental attribution
		D)	All of the above are synonyms for the same error.
	13.	Arbitrary stop point is a cheat in research by stopping a study just at the point you seem to be getting the results you want.
		A)	True
		B)	False
	14.	Which term is when people believe in paranormal abilities and are especially prone to make mistakes in probability judgments?
		A)	Psychic bias.
		B)	Availability error.
		C)	Null hypothesis.
		D)	Synchronicity.
	15.	The idea that one notices, remembers, and overestimates the probability of evidence that stands out is known as:
		A)	Illusory Optimism.
		B)	Availability Error.
		C)	Illusory Error.
		D)	Clustering Illusion.
	16.	Carl Jung invented what term referring to remarkably meaningful coincidences?
		A)	Jinx.
		B)	Synchronicity.
		C)	Super Coincidences.
		D)	The Collective Unconscious.
	17.	When you apply number analyses to your data until one analysis yields the result you want:
		A)	Data mining.
		B)	Gambler's fallacy.
		C)	Law of very large numbers.
		D)	Coincidences.

Your score out of 100%: %

The correct answers are marked by a "C" in the box before each question. The incorrect questions are marked by an "X".